On the surface, everything sounds great.
But Wall Street pros point to a number of alarming market charts that show a different story. For example, the CBOE Volatility Index (also known as the VIX or “fear gauge”) seems stuck at record lows. The VIX typically tracks around 20. This year it reached 23 year lows of 9.04. The lack of investor pessimism has the pros worried.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab said, “the stock market has boosted investor optimism, but may have also bred complacency about ongoing risks.”
But that may not be the worst of it.
According to Megan Green, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management, consumers are in debt up to their eyeballs.
She says there is a “breakdown in the relationship between incomes and savings.” This suggests that the typical U.S. consumer – who drives every economic recovery to date in this country – “may be near the end of the credit cycle.”
Mr. Tchir is right. This might be the most terrifying chart of all. Nothing seems very concerning. Those things that do seem concerning have been around for so long investors are used to them. The entire situation defies logic. That’s why, from Wall Street to Main Street, investors don’t know what to make of the current market.
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